A GIS-Based Fuzzy-AHP Method for Evaluating Solar Farm Locations: A Case Study in Karbala Province, Iraq

Abstract

Abstract:

The rapid growth of renewable energy has become a cornerstone of the contemporary global energy landscape. Solar energy, with its vast potential, holds promise for meeting the escalating energy demands and expanding its prominence within the energy sector. Despite its advantageous climatic conditions, the Republic of Iraq lags significantly behind in harnessing solar energy, particularly in comparison to other Middle Eastern nations. This research endeavors to assess feasible locations for the establishment of utility scale solar photovoltaic (PV) plants within Karbala Governorate, situated in central Iraq. Leveraging Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methodologies, the study draws upon diverse datasets from authoritative sources, including the Iraqi Ministry of Agriculture (specifically the Meteorological Agency and the Meteorological and Seismic Monitoring Agency), the Iraqi Ministry of Planning, and the US Geological Survey. The research first identifies and assigns weights to various factors (such as slope, solar radiation, proximity to power grid, distance from urban areas, proximity to road networks, distance from water bodies, Land Surface Temperature (LST), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), precipitation, proximity to fault lines, and annual dust accumulation) that influence the suitability of potential solar PV plant sites. This is achieved through the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP), which discerns distinct categories of suitability. Subsequently, all layers are transformed into fuzzy membership layers to delineate constraints across the study area, thereby accentuating unsuitable sites. The culmination of this effort involves multiplying the fuzzy weighted set of relevant factors by the fuzzy logic layer to produce the final suitability map. Upon scrutinizing the results, it becomes apparent that constraints envelop 83% of the study area, while a discernible 17% meets the requisite criteria, rendering them suitable for the establishment of utility-scale solar installations. Notably, a significant proportion of these potential areas is situated in proximity to power transmission infrastructure and urban centers, highlighting their economic viability and potential impact.