Modeling Extreme COVID-19 Data in Iraq

Tasnim Hasan Kadhim Albaldawi; Saleemah H. Jasaim

doi:10.24996/ijs.2023.64.11.27

Authors

Tasnim Hasan Kadhim Albaldawi Department of Math., College of Science, University of Baghdad, Baghdad, Iraq https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9078-136X
Saleemah H. Jasaim Department of Math., College of Science, University of Baghdad, Baghdad, Iraq

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24996/ijs.2023.64.11.27

Keywords:

Dagum, Generalized Pareto, Generalized Extreme Value, Burr XII

Abstract

This paper considers the maximum number of weekly cases and deaths caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in Iraq from its outbreak in February 2020 until the first of July 2022. Some probability distributions were fitted to the data. Maximum likelihood estimates were obtained and the goodness of fit tests were performed. Results revealed that the maximum weekly cases were best fitted by the Dagum distribution, which was accepted by three goodness of fit tests. The generalized Pareto distribution best fitted the maximum weekly deaths, which was also accepted by the goodness of fit tests. The statistical analysis was carried out using the Easy-Fit software and Microsoft Excel 2019.