A mathematical model for the dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic involving the infective immigrants

  • Ahmed A. Mohsen Department of Mathematics, College of Education for Pure Science (Ibn Al-Haitham), University of Baghdad, Iraq / Ministry of Education, Rusafa/1, Baghdad-Iraq. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3812-8918
  • Hassan F. AL-Husseiny Department of Mathematics, College of Science, University of Baghdad
  • Khalid Hattaf Centre Regional desMetiers de l’Education et de la Formation (CRMEF), 20340 Derb Ghalef, Casablanca, Morocco. / Laboratory of Analysis, Modeling and Simulation (LAMS), Faculty of Sciences Ben M’sik, Hassan II University of Casablanca, P.O Box 7955 Sidi Othman, Casablanca, Morocco. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5032-3639
  • Bilal Boulfoul Department of Petrochemical and Process Engineering, Faculty of Technology, University of 20 August 1955-Skikda, B. P. 26, El Hadaiek Road, Skikda, 21000, Algeria.
Keywords: COVID-19, Coronavirus, Immigrants, Mathematical model, Stability, Local bifurcation

Abstract

‎  Since the first outbreak in Wuhan, China, in December 31, 2019, COVID-19    pandemic  ‎has been spreading to many countries in the world. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has caused a ‎major global crisis, with 554,767 total confirmed cases, 484,570 total recovered cases, and ‎‎12,306 deaths in Iraq as of February 2, 2020. In the absence of any effective therapeutics or drugs ‎and with an unknown epidemiological life cycle, predictive mathematical models can aid in ‎the understanding of both control and management of coronavirus disease. Among the important ‎factors that helped the rapid spread of the epidemic are immigration, travelers, foreign workers, and foreign students. In this work, we develop a mathematical model to study the dynamical ‎behavior of COVID-19 pandemic, involving immigrants' effects with the possibility of re-infection. ‎Firstly, we studied the positivity and roundedness of the solution of the proposed model. The stability ‎results of the model at the disease-free equilibrium point were presented when . Further, it was proven that the pandemic equilibrium point will persist uniformly when . Moreover, we ‎confirmed the occurrence of the local bifurcation (saddle-node, pitchfork, and transcritical). Finally, ‎theoretical analysis and numerical results were shown to be consistent.

Published
2021-01-30
How to Cite
Mohsen, A. A., AL-Husseiny, H. F., Hattaf, K., & Boulfoul, B. (2021). A mathematical model for the dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic involving the infective immigrants. Iraqi Journal of Science, 62(1), 295-307. https://doi.org/10.24996/ijs.2021.62.1.28
Section
Mathematics