A Stochastic Differential Equations Model for the Spread of Coronavirus COVID-19): The Case of Iraq

Ahmed M. Kareem; Saad  Naji  Al-Azzawi

doi:10.24996/ijs.2021.62.3.31

Authors

Ahmed M. Kareem Department of Mathematics, College of Science, Baghdad University, Iraq.
Saad Naji Al-Azzawi Department of Mathematics, College of Science for Women, Baghdad University, Iraq.

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24996/ijs.2021.62.3.31

Keywords:

Mathematical modeling of COVID-19, basic reproduction number, pandemic, stochastic SIR model, computer simulation

Abstract

In this paper, we model the spread of coronavirus (COVID -19) by introducing stochasticity into the deterministic differential equation susceptible -infected-recovered (SIR model). The stochastic SIR dynamics are expressed using Itô's formula. We then prove that this stochastic SIR has a unique global positive solution I(t).The main aim of this article is to study the spread of coronavirus COVID-19 in Iraq from 13/8/2020 to 13/9/2020. Our results provide a new insight into this issue, showing that the introduction of stochastic noise into the deterministic model for the spread of COVID-19 can cause the disease to die out, in scenarios where deterministic models predict disease persistence. These results were also clearly illustrated by Computer simulation.